Source: The Orlando Sentinel

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting attendance at Disney’s U.S. parks will fall as much as 10 percent this year.

The firm, which downgraded shares in the Walt Disney Co. from “buy” to “neutral” last week, expects attendance declines at Walt Disney World and Disneyland to accelerate later this year. Goldman estimates that year-over-year attendance fell 4 percent during Disney’s second fiscal quarter, which ended Saturday, and that it will fall 5 percent in the third quarter and then 10 percent in the fourth, which runs from July through September.

Attendance at Disney World and Disneyland fell about 5 percent during the company’s first quarter, which ended Dec. 27.

Goldman says the attendance declines would be stepper were it not for Disney’s buy four nights, get three free hotel promotion. But that comes with its own costs – the firm projects that Disney’s hotel-room revenue will sink as much as 30 percent from a year ago.

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